Rise of AAP in India

In an era of the Modi Wave and current political landscape being dominated by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), most parties have struggled to maintain their foothold, let alone expand. However, AAP is one of the exceptions. Unlike its rivals, the BJP and Congress, which have deep historical roots and affiliations, AAP stands out as a modern political entity, unencumbered by the legacies of India's freedom movement.

The India Against Corruption movement, spearheaded by social activist Anna Hazare, mobilised millions across the country over two years to demand the passage of the Jan Lokpal Bill. Despite extensive protests and fasts, the bill was not passed in the parliament. Recognizing the need for systemic change, a faction led by Arvind Kejriwal within the movement decided to transition into politics. Thus, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was born on October 2, 2012.

Kejriwal's leadership, coupled with the party's focus on grassroots issues, has enabled AAP to expand its influence beyond Delhi and Punjab. In essence, AAP's rise represents a shift towards a more modern political era, where governance and performance overshadow traditional political concerns. As it continues to grow and consolidate its presence across India, AAP poses a formidable challenge to established political forces. Amidst the recent arrest of Delhi's Chief Minister, Arvind Kejriwal, we delve into this article to explore the remarkable journey of the Aam Aadmi Party.

General Elections

Riding on a wave of popular support, the AAP made an impressive debut into the political arena, securing 28 seats in the Delhi Assembly out of 70. This victory not only diminished the incumbent Congress party, but also saw Arvind Kejriwal triumph over three-time Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit by an unprecedented margin in the New Delhi constituency.

Following the failure to pass the Jan Lokpal Bill due to insufficient numbers in the Delhi Assembly, the AAP government resigned in February 2014, opting to seek a fresh mandate. However, before the re-election in Delhi could take place, the Lok Sabha elections were scheduled in April and May 2014. Contesting over 400 seats, the AAP witnessed a pivotal moment with the party securing four MP seats in the parliamentary polls, all from Punjab.

However, AAP has faced challenges in translating its success in Delhi and Punjab to the national level. In the 2019 general elections, AAP faced a setback, ranking third in most constituencies in Delhi, with exceptions in South Delhi and Northwest Delhi where it ranked second. Although the party had made a strong debut in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Delhi with an impressive 33.1% vote share, its performance declined in 2019, securing only 18.01% vote share.

Additionally, in the 2019 General Elections, despite garnering significant attention, AAP only managed to secure one constituency, held by Bhagwant Mann in Sangrur, Punjab. This decline in electoral performance begs the question of why the party's popularity waned.

Election Year	Seats contested	Seats won	Voter Share %
2014 LS	432	4	2.1
2019 LS	35	1	0.4

Source : ECI

Assembly Elections

In the 2015 Delhi Legislative Assembly elections, the AAP achieved a significant milestone by securing an overwhelming majority, winning 67 out of 70 seats. The victory relegated the BJP to just three seats, while the Congress failed to win any. However, in the 2020 elections, although the AAP retained power with 62 seats, there was a decline of 5 seats which all went to BJP, albeit with only a 1% decrease in vote share. The party's loss can be attributed to its failure to consolidate gains from the previous election, effectively counter polarisation surrounding the anti-CAA NRC movement, and the last-minute changes in candidates.

Shifting focus to Punjab, in the 2017 Legislative Assembly elections, the AAP secured 20 seats with a vote share of 23.7%. The year 2021 witnessed massive farmers' protests, during which the AAP extended support to the farmers. Moreover, internal conflicts within the ruling Congress party in Punjab indirectly bolstered AAP's prospects in the 2022 elections.

So, in the 2022 Punjab Legislative Assembly elections, AAP experienced a surge in popularity, securing a landslide victory with 92 seats with 42% vote share. Bhagwant Mann, AAP's candidate, assumed the position of Chief Minister of Punjab.

Expanding its footprint beyond Punjab, AAP emerged as the third front in Gujarat's political landscape following the 2022 Legislative Assembly elections. Securing 12.92% of the votes and five seats, AAP's entry into Gujarat politics marked a significant milestone. Similarly, in Goa, AAP won 2 seats with a 6% vote share. With AAP securing more than 6% vote share in at least four states, the party was granted national status. As AAP is gaining some prominence in and around Delhi, will Haryana be the next Punjab?

Election Year	Seats contested	Seats won	Voter Share %
Delhi Legislative Assembly (70 seats)
2013	69	28	29.49
2015	69	67	54.30
2020	70	62	53.57
Punjab Legislative Assembly (117 seats)
2017	112	20	23.7
2022	117	92	42.01
Goa Legislative Assembly (40 seats)
2017	39	0	6.30
2022	39	2	6.77
Gujarat Legislative Assembly (182 seats)
2017	29	0	0.10
2022	180	5	12.92

Source : ECI

AAP's ventures in Karnataka, Telangana, and Rajasthan have yielded disappointing results, falling short even of NOTA in some cases. Despite its rise, this raises questions about AAP's ability to establish itself as a formidable national entity. The following data highlights the states where AAP fielded candidates but did not secure any seats:

Election Year	Seats contested	Seats won	Voter Share %
Chhattisgarh Legislative Assembly (90 seats)
2018	85	0	0.87
2023	57	0	0.93
Haryana Legislative Assembly
2019	46	0 / 90	0.48
Himachal Pradesh Legislative Assembly (68 seats)
2022	67	0	1.10
Jharkhand Legislative Assembly (81 seats)
2019	26	0 / 81	0.23
Karnataka Legislative Assembly (224 seats)
2018	28	0	0.06
2023	209	0	0.58
Madhya Pradesh Legislative Assembly (230 seats)
2018	208	0	0.66
2023	69	0	0.54
Rajasthan Legislative Assembly (200 seats)
2018	142	0	0.38
2023	85	0	0.38
Telangana Legislative Assembly (119 seats)
2018	41	0	0.06
Uttarakhand Legislative Assembly (70 seats)
2022	70	0	3.31
Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly (403 seats)
2022	349	0	0.38

Source : ECI

Municipal Elections

AAP managed to break the BJP's 15-year stronghold on Delhi's corporation in the 2022 MCD elections. From 49 seats secured in 2017, AAP made a massive jump of 134 seats in 2022 elections with a 42% vote share. Despite the BJP's vigorous campaign efforts involving chief ministers and Union ministers, AAP's victory was noteworthy amidst corruption allegations and CBI raids on the deputy chief minister. For a party that is just a decade old, this victory underscores its growing influence marking its fourth electoral triumph in the capital.

AAP contested the Chandigarh Municipal Corporation elections in 2021 for the first time and secured 14 seats, emerging as the largest single party in the council of 35 elected seats. This election held significance as it marked the first-ever alliance between the Congress and AAP. The Supreme Court played a historic role on February 20, by declaring AAP's Kuldeep Kumar as the winner of the Chandigarh mayoral election, following weeks of controversy surrounding invalidated votes.

Year	Municipal Corporation	Seats contested	Seats won	Voter Share %
Chandigarh
2021	Chandigarh	35	14 / 35	27.08
Delhi
2017	North Delhi	104	21 / 104	27.88
	South Delhi	104	16 / 104	26.44
	East Delhi	64	12 / 64	23.40
2022	Delhi	250	134 / 250	42.05
Gujarat
2021	Surat	120	27 / 120	28.47
2021	Gandhinagar	40	1 / 44	21.77

Source : ECI

Welfare Schemes

AAP has focused on populist measures rather than radical social realignment. It has delivered on promises such as Mohalla clinics, free electricity up to 200 units, free water, and free bus rides for women which have significantly benefited residents across class and caste lines. Additionally, AAP's tax collection reform has doubled Delhi's government revenue without introducing new taxes over the past seven years. Overall, the party's governance approach, characterised by effective administration and grassroots support, has solidified its reputation and further explains its widespread appeal.

In February 2024, AAP found itself grappling with allegations of a liquor policy scam which was tarnishing its anti-corruption image. This crisis led to legal battles, governance clashes, and accusations of betrayal in its national aspirations. The BJP has been alleged of targeting AAP officeholders as well as opposition leaders by leveraging ED, CBI for their own gain. AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal highlighted this onslaught, citing the filing of 250 alleged fake cases against the party without any substantiated evidence of wrongdoing.

Conclusion

The recent arrest of Arvind Kejriwal on March 21 marked a historic moment as the first time a sitting Chief Minister had been arrested since India's independence. This move by the BJP has provided ample fodder for the opposition to capitalise on.

With the Congress facing financial woes due to frozen bank accounts and the Chief Minister of the national capital under arrest, there can be discontent brewing among the Delhi electorate. This situation presents an opportunity for the India bloc, to potentially limit the BJP's electoral gains and secure a few seats in the upcoming lok sabha elections in the national capital.

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