Uttar Pradesh holds immense electoral sway, boasting eighty seats in the lower house of India's parliament, the Lok Sabha, and housing approximately 230 million residents. Renowned as the largest prize in the upcoming national election, the state is pivotal for both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and a plethora of opposition factions. With a historical legacy that includes being the birthplace of eight of India's fourteen Prime Ministers and serving as the ancestral state of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty for five generations, Uttar Pradesh's significance transcends its sheer size in parliamentary representation.
Recently, significant seat-sharing arrangements have been unveiled in Uttar Pradesh, notably between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party (SP). According to their agreement, the Congress will vie for 17 out of the state's 80 seats, while the SP and its smaller allies will contest the remaining 63. This arrangement marks a pivotal development within the opposition alliance, formed with the primary objective of challenging Prime Minister Modi and the BJP in the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha election. Conversely, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) appears to be lagging behind in delineating seat allocations among its constituent parties.
The Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, a significant political campaign traversing Uttar Pradesh, has garnered substantial public attention and support, indicating a burgeoning momentum for opposition forces. Moreover, the recent unrest among unemployed youth protesting alleged irregularities in recruitment exams has added a layer of hope for the opposition.
As the BJP's effect from the Ram Mandir inauguration in early January is beginning to subside, questions arise regarding the potential for the INDIA alliance to mount a credible challenge to the NDA's dominance in Uttar Pradesh. In this article, we delve into the prospects of the India Bloc in Uttar Pradesh in the general elections.
Voter turnout in UP, while only 59.21 %, was still the highest ever recorded in the state—a massive jump of 10 percentage points from its 2009 level. The BJP reaped the benefits of this surge in political participation. Across India, the party’s performance improved the most in constituencies that saw the greatest rise in turnout specifically in UP. However, the voter turnout in legislative elections was higher than in general elections indicating heightened level of civic engagement, local political awareness.
| GE Year | Voter Turnout |
|---|---|
| 2019 | 59.21% |
| 2014 | 58.44% |
| 2009 | 47.79% |
| LS Year | Voter Turnout |
| 2022 | 61.03% |
| 2017 | 61.24% |
| 2012 | 59.40% |
Source : ECI
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP), erstwhile rivals vying for dominance in Uttar Pradesh, set aside their longstanding differences to form the Mahagathbandhan alliance in 2019, which also included the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) until its recent alignment with the BJP.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured a formidable vote share of approximately 50% and claimed 62 seats. However, when considering the combined vote share of the BSP, SP, and INC, totaling 43.9%, their collective seat tally amounted to a mere 17. It is also essential to note that the BSP, despite emerging as the runner-up to the BJP with 10 seats, opted to abstain from the India Bloc and pursue its electoral ambitions independently.
Comparatively, in the 2014 elections, the BJP garnered a vote share of 43% and clinched 71 seats. Although the combined vote share of the SP, BSP, and INC surpassed that of the BJP at 49.3%, their cumulative seat count stood at a meagre 7. This discrepancy underscores the inherent complexities of India's first-past-the-post electoral system, wherein a party may amass substantial votes across a state yet fail to secure any parliamentary seats, as exemplified by the BSP's outcome in the 2014 polls as the party was unable to win a single seat despite securing a vote share of approximately 19%.
In light of these observations, it becomes evident that gauging electoral success solely based on vote percentage proves inadequate. Instead, an analysis of seats won or leading positions provides a more accurate basis for projecting electoral outcomes within the Indian political landscape.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP suffered losses in 14 seats, with 10 of those seats being claimed by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), compared to only 3 seats won by SP. This disparity underscores the potential impact of the BSP in challenging the BJP's dominance, suggesting a greater likelihood of the BSP influencing electoral outcomes and potentially impeding the BJP's quest for power.
| PC NAME | Winner Party 2014 | Winner Party 2019 |
|---|---|---|
| Saharanpur | BJP | BSP |
| Bijnor | BJP | BSP |
| Nagina | BJP | BSP |
| Moradabad | BJP | SP |
| Rampur | BJP | SP |
| Sambhal | BJP | SP |
| Amroha | BJP | BSP |
| Ambedkar Nagar | BJP | BSP |
| Shrawasti | BJP | BSP |
| Lalganj | BJP | BSP |
| Ghosi | BJP | BSP |
| Jaunpur | BJP | BSP |
| Ghazipur | BJP | BSP |
| Robertsganj | BJP | AD |
Source : ECI
In the 2022 assembly elections, the Mahagathbandhan, led by Akhilesh Yadav and Congress, garnered an approximate vote share of 38.5%. Translating this into assembly segments, the Mahagathbandhan, along with the Congress, secured victories in 127 assembly constituencies, roughly equivalent to 25 Lok Sabha seats (as one Lok Sabha seat is made of five assembly seats in UP, generally). By this measure, the potential outcome for the NDA in the 2024 elections, constrained by the India alliance, could be limited to approximately 55 seats—a notable decline from the 64 seats it clinched in 2019.
However, it's essential to consider the dynamics of alliances and realignments. In the 2022 assembly polls, the BJP contested in partnership with the Apna Dal and Nishad Party, later bolstered by the support of the SBSP and RLD post-elections. This alliance increases the NDA's seat tally to 287, equivalent to around 58 Lok Sabha seats—still marginally lower than its current parliamentary representation.
The pivotal question remains: can the India alliance potentially stop the BJP from surpassing its 2019 performance in Uttar Pradesh—a feat that would constitute a significant achievement for the opposition bloc.The potential lies in the success of the SP-Congress alliance in broadening its social base,
In the 2017 assembly elections, the combined vote share of the BSP, SP, and INC amounted to approximately 50%, while the BJP secured around 39% of the vote share. Despite this disparity, the collective seat tally for the opposition stood at 73, translating to 15 Lok Sabha seats, whereas the BJP claimed 312 seats, equivalent to 62 Lok Sabha seats—the same as its current parliamentary representation.
While this analysis suggests a potential limitation on the BJP's seat count to 55, contingent upon opposition consolidation, the outcome hinges on the ability of the opposition to unify and mobilise votes effectively.
| LOK SABHA ELECTIONS 2019 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Alliance | Name of Party | Voter Share % | Seats won |
| National Democratic Alliance | Bharatiya Janata Party | 49.98% | 62 |
| Apna Dal (Sonelal) | 1.21% | 2 | |
| Mahagathbandhan | Bahujan Samaj Party | 19.43% | 10 |
| Samajwadi Party | 18.11% | 5 | |
| Rashtriya Lok Dal | 1.69% | 0 | |
| United Progressive Alliance | Indian National Congress | 6.36% | 1 |
| LOK SABHA ELECTIONS 2014 | |||
| NDA | Bharatiya Janata Party | 42.63% | 71 |
| Apna Dal | 1.0% | 2 | |
| - | Samajwadi Party | 22.20% | 5 |
| - | Bahujan Samaj Party | 19.60% | 0 |
| UPA | Indian National Congress | 7.50% | 2 |
| Rashtriya Lok Dal | 0.86% | 0 | |
| LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Alliance | Name of Party | Voter Share % | Seats won |
| National Democratic Alliance | Bharatiya Janata Party | 41.6% | 255 |
| Apna Dal (Sonelal) | 1.6% | 12 | |
| NINSHAD | 0.9% | 6 | |
| SP+ | SP | 32.3% | 111 |
| RLD | 2.9% | 9 | |
| Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party | 1.36% | 6 | |
| UPA | INC | 2.33% | 2 |
| LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2017 | |||
| NDA | BJP | 39.67% | 312 |
| SP+INC | INC | 6.25% | 7 |
| SP | 21.82% | 47 | |
| - | BSP | 22.23% | 19 |
Source : ECI
The BJP's electoral success hinges on its adeptness at mobilising Hindu voters and consolidating their support. OBC Hindus constitute the largest demographic bloc in Uttar Pradesh, comprising roughly 50% of the population, followed by Dalits at 21.5%, and Muslims at 19.5%. The Jatavs, constituting 56% of Dalits, traditionally formed the BSP's core vote bank. However, with Mayawati's declining popularity and consecutive defeats, both the SP and BJP made inroads into this demographic.
Conversely, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) managed to secure a significant portion of Muslim and Yadav votes in the 2022 elections, it struggled to attract Dalit and other OBC voters due to its perceived image as a party favouring Muslims and Yadavs. Despite alienating Muslim voters, who constitute 19% of the population, the BJP's stronghold among the 79% Hindu population mitigates the impact of this loss.
The BJP strategically targeted non-Yadav voters from the SP and non-Jatav voters from the BSP, alleging marginalisation by their dominant counterparts. This approach paid dividends, as the BJP attracted significant support from lower OBC and Dalit voters while consolidating its upper-caste base. In the 2022 elections, the SP forged key alliances with smaller parties representing backward classes and adopted inclusive messaging to counter the BJP's portrayal of it as a Yadav-centric party.
Akhilesh Yadav devised the PDA (Pichda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) alliance formula, aiming to unite backward, Dalit, and minority communities. Recognizing discontent among non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav over agrarian issues, inflation, and unemployment, the SP sought to tap into this sentiment. As a result, the SP made significant gains, winning 111 seats compared to 47 in 2017.
The alliance's ability to mobilise support suggests the potential to limit the BJP's parliamentary seats, despite the challenges of winning in the state. With widespread unemployment among the youth, the opposition aims to capitalise on discontent ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. Ultimately, the electoral battleground in Uttar Pradesh presents both challenges and opportunities for the opposition. As Uttar Pradesh embraced its statehood and ventured into governance, the electoral process became a cornerstone of its democratic journey, shaping the destiny of the region and laying the foundation for subsequent political and developmental initiatives, we anticipate insightful analysis on the 2024 General Elections. Join us in our series!
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