The BJP's stronghold lies in India's Hindi heartland, encompassing states like Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Bihar, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. However, Bihar stands out as the only state where the party has never secured a majority on its own. This makes the political landscape of Bihar very intriguing.
The decision by Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar who has been the Chief Minister of Bihar for the past 15 years to terminate his alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal led by Lalu Prasad Yadav , in favour of rekindling ties with the BJP, is a significant setback to the INDIA bloc. It led to the collapse of the ruling coalition in Bihar, which included JD(U), RJD, and Congress. Kumar's remarks upon resigning, regarding the lack of cohesion within the INDIA bloc come just months before they face the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections further underscore the challenges faced by the opposition.
However, this move may have backfired. Nitish Kumar's credibility in Bihar has taken a hit, with people questioning his political integrity. Nonetheless, the shift in alliances presents a newfound advantage for the BJP in what was previously an opposition-dominated state. But there arises an opportunity to solidify a people-friendly common agenda like unemployment for the opposition. With Bihar holding 40 Lok Sabha seats, its political significance cannot be understated.
This article delves into the complex dynamics of Bihar's political scene and its implications for the future of the INDIA bloc in the state.
Over the past decade, there has been a significant increase in voter turnout in general elections, with a surge of over 10%. However, Bihar has consistently recorded the lowest average voter turnout in the past three assembly elections among all states. In 2019 general elections, Bihar witnessed the second-lowest voter turnout in the country.
Female voter turnout surpassed male turnout for the third consecutive assembly election, with women comprising 59.7% of voters compared to men at 54.6% in the 2020 Assembly Elections. This trend of higher female participation has been observed for over a decade, attributed to the developmental policies and programs implemented by Nitish Kumar's government since 2005. These initiatives, such as the Jeevika program, and the 50% reservation for women in panchayat elections, have facilitated greater involvement and decision-making among women at the village and panchayat levels.
Yet, despite these positive developments, issues such as prohibition and allegations of increased petty corruption at the grassroots level, coupled with perceived inaction by the chief minister regarding illicit alcohol trade, have left a significant portion of women feeling disillusioned.
| AE Year | Voter Turnout |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 57.3% |
| 2015 | 56.9% |
| 2010 | 52.7% |
| GE Year | Voter Turnout |
|---|---|
| 2019 | 57.3% |
| 2014 | 56.3% |
| 2009 | 44.5% |
Source : ECI
After leading a formidable alliance with the BJP for 17 years, the JDU severed ties in June 2013 due to objections over Narendra Modi's prime ministerial candidature. The BJP-led alliance secured victory in Bihar's 2014 Lok Sabha elections with 31 seats won, attributed to the 'Modi wave' and anti-incumbency sentiment. JD(U) won just 2 seats and RJD won 4 seats who were dominant political forces in the state.
In the Lok Sabha, the NDA alliance, consisting of the BJP, JDU, and LJP, currently holds 39 out of 40 seats, and secured a significant 53.25% vote share. Interestingly, the BJP's vote share witnessed a decline of around 6% in 2019 compared to the 2014 general elections. It's worth mentioning that in 2014, the BJP contested 30 out of the 40 seats, whereas in 2019, it contested only 17 seats. The BJP sacrificed five seats it had won in 2014 to accommodate the JD(U) as an equal partner in the alliance who had contested alone in 2014. Both the BJP and LJP achieved a 100% success rate by winning all the seats they contested in 2019. The JD(U) saw a remarkable improvement from its performance in 2014, increasing its seat tally from two to 16.
On the other hand, despite being the leading opposition party, the RJD failed to secure any seats in the 2019 elections and experienced a 5% decrease in its vote share.The RJD contested an election for the first time in Lalu Prasad’s absence. The Congress managed to secure just one seat.
| General Election 2019 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Alliance | Party Name | Seats | Voter Share% |
| NDA | BJP | 17 | 23.58% |
| LJP | 6 | 7.86% | |
| JD(U) | 16 | 21.81% | |
| Mahagathbandhan | RJD | 0 | 15.36% |
| INC | 1 | 7.70% | |
| General Election 2014 | |||
| Alliance | Party Name | Seats | Voter Share% |
| NDA | BJP | 22 | 29.40% |
| LJP | 6 | 6.40% | |
| RLSP | 3 | 3% | |
| UPA | RJD | 4 | 20.1% |
| INC | 2 | 8.40% | |
| JD(U) | 2 | 15.8% | |
Source : ECI
In the 2015 Assembly Elections, the Mahagathbandhan, comprising the JDU-RJD and INC alliance, secured a resounding victory, winning a total of 178 seats and sweeping the state. The RJD emerged as the party with the highest number of seats, capturing 80 seats with a vote share of 18.4%. Interestingly, although the BJP garnered the highest vote share at 24.4%, it failed to secure a victory in the state. The Congress, with a modest 6.7% vote share, managed to win 27 seats. However, in 2017, the government collapsed as Nitish Kumar returned to the NDA fold, realigning with the BJP-led alliance.
Fast forward to the 2020 elections, where the NDA alliance clinched a narrow victory. Interestingly, both the National Democratic Alliance and the Mahagathbandhan ended up with identical vote shares at 37.2%, but with different seat counts – 125 against 110 in the 243-member assembly. Despite emerging as the party with the largest number of seats, the Rashtriya Janata Dal lost the election. Despite gaining 74 seats, up from 53 in 2015, the BJP's vote share dropped by 6%. The INC, on the other hand, experienced a 2% increase in vote share but secured 19 seats, down by 8 from 2015.
JD(U) suffered a significant setback, winning only 43 seats, a decrease from 71. Additionally, the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation (CPI[ML]L) secured 12 seats with just 3.16% vote share. This election also witnessed a resurgence of the Left, with CPI(ML)L winning 12 seats with just 3.16% vote share, and the emergence of a new player in Bihar, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM), which secured five seats in the eastern tip of the state.
The surprising victory of the NDA over the MGB was attributed to various factors, including anti-incumbency sentiments, the humanitarian and economic crisis caused by COVID-19, and a focused campaign on jobs and unemployment led by the RJD. Political analysts primarily pointed to women voters, recalling the misrule of the RJD, and the diversion of Muslim votes by parties like the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen, to explain the NDA's unexpected success.
| Legislative Assembly Election 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Alliance | Party Name | Seats | Voter Share% |
| NDA | BJP | 74 | 19.5% |
| JD(U) | 43 | 15.4% | |
| HAMS | 4 | 0.9% | |
| VSIP | 4 | 1.5% | |
| Mahagathbandhan | RJD | 75 | 23.1% |
| INC | 19 | 9.5% | |
| CPI(ML)L | 12 | 3.2% | |
| CPI | 2 | 0.8% | |
| CPI(M) | 2 | 0.7% | |
| Others | 8 | 23.7% | |
| Legislative Assembly Election 2015 | |||
| Alliance | Party Name | Seats | Voter Share% |
| NDA | BJP | 53 | 24.4% |
| LJP | 2 | 4.8% | |
| RLSP | 2 | 2.6% | |
| HAM | 1 | 2.3% | |
| Mahagathbandhan | RJD | 80 | 18.4% |
| INC | 27 | 6.7% | |
| JD(U) | 71 | 16.8% | |
| Others | 7 | 21.5% | |
Source : ECI
The allocation of Lok Sabha seats in Bihar has become a source of contention for both the NDA and the INDIA bloc. The INDIA bloc, consisting of the Congress, RJD led by Lalu Prasad Yadav, and Left parties, namely CPI (ML), CPI (M), and CPI. The CPI (ML) makes it complex and adds to the challenge of resolving the seat allocation issue.
In addition to these complexities, the NDA in Bihar must also accommodate several smaller parties during seat-sharing discussions. Notably, the LJP is no longer a single party, with two factions led by Chirag Paswan and Pashupati Kumar Paras. Furthermore, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) led by Jitan Ram Manjhi and the Rashtriya Lok Janta Dal led by Upendra Kushwaha have aligned with the BJP.
It remains uncertain whether the BJP and JD(U) will opt to contest fewer seats to accommodate their allies. The intricate negotiations surrounding seat allocation highlight the intricate political landscape of Bihar, where various parties vie for representation and influence in the Lok Sabha.
Bihar, where the Congress only won one seat in the previous election, posed a challenge for the opposition alliance when it came to seat sharing talks. The appointment of Mallikarjun Kharge as the chairperson of the opposition alliance further complicated matters for Nitish Kumar. Nitish Kumar wanted this position and had ambitions to become the PM as well, but his demands faced opposition from within the alliance, including figures like Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal. His departure from the alliance was influenced by concerns over his diminishing role within it and the ambitions of others, like Lalu Prasad, who wanted his son to become the Chief Minister. Despite uncertainties over leadership roles and alliances, Nitish Kumar's decision to rejoin the NDA showcases his personal ambitions and the changing political landscape in Bihar.
The political landscape of Bihar has been marked by a sense of continuity and stability, often revolving around charismatic leaders. Previously, Lalu Prasad Yadav held sway for 15 years, garnering support from a coalition of Muslim and Yadav voters. In the last decade, however, Bihar has been synonymous with its Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar.
During the 2015 elections, a significant shift occurred as the Mahagathbandhan alliance, comprising the JDU, RJD, Congress, and Left parties, garnered strong support from Muslims, as well as the majority of OBC and EBC castes. This was a departure from the political dynamics of the past, where different alliances had the backing of various caste groups.
Historically, during the 17-year rule of the JDU-BJP coalition, the NDA enjoyed support from upper castes, Kurmis, Kushwahas, a substantial portion of EBC and SC castes, and a segment of Muslims. Conversely, during Lalu Prasad's tenure, the RJD consolidated support from OBC, EBC, and SC castes, alongside Muslims.
The recent electoral victories of the RJD have mirrored historical trends, especially during periods of high voter turnout, such as when the Mandal Commission recommendations were implemented and OBC reservations were enforced, prior to the creation of Jharkhand.
The Mahagathbandhan is now seeking to revive Mandal politics by leveraging census data to increase quotas for OBCs, SCs, and STs up to 65%. However, the crucial question remains whether this caste-based political strategy can challenge the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, particularly among youth, women, and beneficiaries of central government schemes. Additionally, the impact of events like the Ayodhya temple inauguration on voter sentiments in the heartland is yet to be determined.
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