Contrary to expectations, the BJP alliance performed poorly in the Jharkhand elections, winning only 24 seats, while the JMM alliance secured a historic victory. For the first time in the state's history, an alliance surpassed 40% vote share, winning a record 55 seats. Hemant Soren overcame one-term anti-incumbency to secure re-election with an unprecedented mandate, marking a milestone in Jharkhand's political history. This victory positions him to become the longest-serving Chief Minister of the state, surpassing Arjun Munda.
The BJP's poor performance can largely be attributed to three key factors: the loss of tribal support, leading to a debacle in tribal areas; the vote split caused by Tiger Jairam Mahato’s JLKM party, which siphoned off BJP votes and further weakened its position; and the significant advantage enjoyed by the JMM alliance among female voters.
Tribal consolidation in favour of JMM
The BJP's narrative of alleged Bangladeshi infiltration in the Santhal Pargana region, along with claims of "Love Jihad" and "Land Jihad"—suggesting infiltrators were marrying tribal women to seize their assets and threatening "tribal identity"—has failed to resonate with the tribal community. With over reliance on Bangladeshi Infiltration, BJP failed to recognize the grassroot level issues such as drinking water problems in the tribal regions, lack of jobs opportunities among the tribals and inflation. The BJP's continuous efforts to assimilate Adivasis into a broader Hindu identity has thus far yielded poor results.
Elections results of 28 ST reserved seats
In addition to the tribal community's lack of identification with the BJP, there has been a gradual consolidation of tribal support in favor of the Hemant Soren-led JMM alliance since the 2019 Assembly Elections. While the BJP's support in terms of vote share in tribal seats has remained relatively steady, the JMM alliance’s vote share has surged nearly 1.6 times (from around 30% in 2014 to approximately 50% in 2024), reflecting a significant consolidation behind the state's tallest tribal leader, Hemant Soren.
The merger of the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha into the BJP has eliminated the second alternative for tribals, further strengthening the JMM alliance. It also highlights the absence of a statewide tribal leader capable of challenging Hemant Soren and attracting tribal votes outside the BJP umbrella.
Tiger Jairam Mahato Impact
While the Bharatiya Janata Party was aware of the threat posed by tribal consolidation, the impact of Tiger Jairam Mahato on the party's prospects was an unforeseen challenge. Started as a movement, Jairam Mahato played a pivotal role in denying the BJP a victory in Jharkhand by splitting its Kurmi-Mahato vote bank particularly in its stronghold of North Chotanagpur zone. His impact was instrumental in helping the JMM alliance secure crucial seats in the region.
The extent of the dent caused by Mahato is evident from the fact that, without the votes garnered by JLKM, the BJP alliance’s tally would have been much closer to that of the JMM alliance, with BJP alliance and JMM alliance making the contest neck and neck in terms of vote share and BJP trailing by 3 seats in terms of seat share.
Impact of JLKM in 2024 Vidhan Sabha Elections
The rise of Jairam Mahato has also cast doubt on the effectiveness of BJP's long-time ally Sudesh Mahato. Despite being a prominent leader of the Kurmi-Mahato community, Sudesh Mahato was unable to prevent the erosion of Kurmi-Mahato votes from the BJP+, highlighting a significant challenge for the alliance in retaining its traditional voter base. The pre-poll study conducted by Dhruv Research from 14th November to 18th November revealed a significant vote share split among the OBCs, particularly within the Kurmi Mahato caste, which worked against the BJP.
Jharkhand Caste Wise Voting Trend 2024 Assembly Elections
Advantage JMM alliance among Female voters
The JMM alliance leveraged its strong appeal among female voters, driven by targeted initiatives like the Maiya Sammaan Yojana and the rise of Kalpana Soren as a key women leader. The emergence of Kalpana Soren as a prominent women leader in the state during Hemant Soren’s five-month imprisonment, along with the impactful Maiya Sammaan Yojana, which provides INR 1,000 per month to women through direct benefit transfer, played a pivotal role in shaping Jharkhand's electoral dynamics.
Jharkhand Gender Wise Voting Trend 2024 Assembly Elections
According to the Pre Poll study conducted by Dhruv Research, the JMM alliance held significant support among female voters, capturing approximately 47% of their votes—an 8% lead over the BJP alliance. While the JMM alliance also led by 8% among male voters, the inclusion of JLKM's vote share into the BJP's tally suggests a close contest between the two alliances among male voters. However, even with the addition of JLKM's votes, the JMM alliance would have maintained an edge due to its 4% lead among female voters.
