Mahayuti Gains Momentum, But Is It Their Kurukshetra or Just a Game of Dice?

After the Mahayuti’s poor performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, many believed their prospects in the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly elections were bleak. However, several governance initiatives, particularly the much-discussed Ladki Bahin Yojna, appear to have helped the Mahayuti recover some lost ground among the voters. Additionally, the BJP's resounding victory in the Haryana Assembly elections has bolstered the morale of party workers in Maharashtra, energising them ahead of the state polls.

The key question is whether this momentum will be enough for the Mahayuti to overcome the Maha Vikas Aghadi, whose campaign seems to have been slightly weakened by internal disagreements over ticket distribution and the selection of a chief ministerial candidate. Several key factors such as Urban Rural divide, Ladki Bahin Factor, Alliance Chemistry and Rebels and third party voters are likely to play a crucial role in shaping the outcome of the Maharashtra elections.

Urban vs Rural

Maharashtra can be divided into six regions: Northern Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Western Maharashtra, Mumbai Thane, and Konkan. Three (Northern Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Marathwada) of the Six zones are largely rural and have mostly rural centric issues to deal with such as Agrarian distress, Rural development, Water shortage. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Mahayuti performed better in urban areas like Mumbai Thane and parts of Western Maharashtra but faced massive setbacks in the rural regions like Vidarbha and Marathwada. The performance of both Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi in these regions will be crucial in determining the outcome of the Maharashtra Assembly elections.

Ladki Bahin Factor

The “Ladki Bahin Yojana” has become a key buzzword among the voters and politicians in Maharashtra. A financial aid program of ₹1,500 per month for low-income women, introduced by the ruling Mahayuti to regain ground lost to the MVA in the Lok Sabha elections, the scheme has gained significant traction among women voters. In response, the Opposition alliance of MVA has doubled the promised monthly benefit to ₹3,000 if it comes to power whereas the Mahayuti has also announced to increase the monthly aid to ₹2,100 if re-elected. However, to assess the potential impact of the “Ladki Bahin Yojna”, two key factors must be closely analysed:

1. Addressing Male Voter Dissatisfaction: While the “Ladki Bahin Yojna” is primarily focused on targeting female voters, the crucial challenge lies in whether it can alleviate male voter dissatisfaction, particularly in rural areas like Vidarbha and Marathwada. These regions are grappling with agrarian distress and pressing rural development issues, which are central to male voter concerns. 
2. Impact of Gender Differential: If male voters remain disgruntled with the Mahayuti Government, the gender differential will become an important factor. Gender differential is defined as the difference in vote share between male and female voters for a specific party (e.g., if Party A gets 50% support from female voters and Party B gets 45% support from male voters, the gender differential is 5%). For the Mahayuti alliance to gain a significant advantage over the Maha Vikas Aghadi, a strong gender differential in favour of Mahayuti among female voters will be required to offset any potential loss of male voter support. 

In summary, the success of “Ladki Bahin Yojna” influencing the electoral outcome will depend on its ability to balance gender-based appeal, especially by addressing male voter concerns in rural areas and ensuring a sizable gender differential to tip the scales in favour of Mahayuti.

Alliance Chemistry

Currently, six parties within the two alliances (Mahayuti and MVA) are competing for the Chief Ministerial position. Each party faces a dilemma: they want to maximise their own seat count while ensuring their alliance partner wins enough seats to claim the CM position. This balancing act, combined with the unnatural partnerships (like Uddhav's Shiv Sena with Maha Vikas Aghadi and Ajit Pawar's NCP with Mahayuti), has created internal friction. The chemistry between alliance partners at the constituency level will be key, as potential rebels may undermine the alliance’s chances, significantly impacting the election results.

Rebels and Third party voters

Independents, rebels, and smaller third parties have played a noteworthy role in Maharashtra elections. While they haven’t directly determined the outcomes of the last three Assembly elections, they consistently capture a notable share of the vote. This year, the presence of three potential candidates per seat from both Mahayuti and MVA alliances has led to an increase in the number of independent and third-party contestants. Though not decisive, these candidates can significantly sway the results in tightly contested constituencies by splitting votes or attracting support from disenchanted voters. Their growing presence highlights shifting dynamics, as they leverage dissatisfaction or localised issues to challenge traditional party dominance.

*Despite contesting separately in the 2014 Vidhan Sabha, BJP-Shiv Sena and NCP-Congress have been grouped under the Mahayuti alliance and MVA alliance respectively for representation purposes. 3rd Party/ Independent Candidate vote share is 100% - Mahayuti vote share - MVA vote share

** Mahayuti alliance includes BJP and Shiv Sena whereas MVA alliance includes Congress and NCP.  3rd Party/ Independent Candidate vote share is 100% - Mahayuti vote share - MVA vote share

*** Mahayuti alliance includes BJP, SHS (Eknath Shinde), NCP (Ajit Pawar)  whereas MVA alliance includes Congress, SHS (Uddhav Thackeray), NCP (Sharad Pawar)