The Mahayuti comprising BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) achieved a significant victory in the recent Maharashtra polls securing 49% of the vote share and grabbing 234** of the 288 seats. With an impressive strike rate of roughly 90%, the BJP secured 132 seats, falling short of a majority by just 13 seats, marking its best-ever performance and the highest for any party since Congress's 141-seat win in the 1990 Assembly elections (before Sharad Pawar's departure from Congress Party). In contrast, the MVA comprising Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharad Pawar), which had been buoyed by its success in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, has suffered a crushing defeat and got just 50 seats cumulatively. All the three MVA partners underperformed, contributing to the overall disappointing result for the opposition alliance.
In 2024 Vidhan Sabha, BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde), NCP (Ajit Pawar), JSS, RYSP, RSVA and RPI (Athawale faction) contested under Mahayuti whereas Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (Sharad Pawar) contested under MVA
**Of the 234 seats won by Mahayuti in 2024 Vidhan Sabha elections, 132 seats were won by BJP, 57 seats by Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde), 41 seats by NCP (Ajit Pawar), 2 seats by JSS, 1 seat by RYSP and 1 seat by RSVA. Among the MVA partners, the seat breakup was 16 seats by Congress, 20 seats by Shiv Sena (UBT), 10 seats by NCP (Sharad Pawar), 2 seats by SP, 1 seat by PWPI and 1 seat by CPI(M)
The Mahayuti alliance’s overwhelming victory in Maharashtra stems from a combination of strategic actions taken after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Key factors driving this success include targeted welfare schemes, addressing rural distress, and effectively managing Maratha discontent. A critical leadership decision, notably the decision to maintain Eknath Shinde as Chief Minister and not projecting another BJP leader, particularly Devendra Fadnavis, as a potential CM candidate, played a significant role in consolidating support across key demographic groups, in a situation where there was some visible dissonance with the BJP led Mahayuti during Lok Sabha. By focusing on rural constituencies and adopting caste-based outreach strategies, the alliance was able to secure a decisive mandate, signaling a historic political shift in the state.
Outside the urban centers of Mumbai, Pune, Nagpur, and Nashik, Maharashtra is predominantly rural, and this factor significantly contributed to the Mahayuti’s underperformance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
However, Mahayuti successfully turned the tide in these areas, dramatically improving its seat share. The rural and semi-rural constituencies, which account for 173 Assembly seats, saw the Mahayuti secure 144 of them—a remarkable gain of 78 seats compared to the 2024 Lok Sabha results. This shift highlights the Mahayuti’s effective strategy in addressing local issues, such as agrarian distress, particularly in the Vidarbha and Marathwada regions, as well as the dissatisfaction among Marathas and Kunbi OBCs.
Elections results 2024 Vidhan Sabha (delta from 2024 Lok Sabha elections)
Note: As per the internal data algorithms of Dhruv Research, seats are classified based on the percentage of urban population as follows: Urban (>75%), Semi-Urban (50%–75%), Semi-Rural (25%–50%), and Rural (≤25%).
Most of the rural and semi-rural regions in Maharashtra are located in Vidarbha and Marathwada, where Mahayuti's performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections was relatively weak. These two zones—Marathwada (48 seats) and Vidarbha (60 seats)—together account for 108 seats. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Mahayuti secured only 30 of these seats. However, in the recent Vidhan Sabha elections, the alliance made a remarkable turnaround, winning 88 seats in these two zones, showcasing a significant shift in voter sentiment.
Zone wise Elections results 2024 Vidhan Sabha (delta from 2024 Lok Sabha elections)
The improvement in Mahayuti’s performance in Vidarbha and Marathwada, along with other zones, is evident in the caste-wise voting patterns across Maharashtra. Vidarbha, predominantly home to the Kunbi OBC caste (~20% of the population), and Marathwada, with its influential Maratha caste (~30%), both saw a shift in support from these key groups, which had previously contributed to the Mahayuti's decline. This rise in Mahayuti’s support can be largely attributed to its improved performance among these critical voter bases, helping the alliance recover in these regions. By addressing caste-based concerns, Mahayuti reversed its poor showing in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, leading to a major political turnaround. According to the pre-poll study conducted by Dhruv Research, the Mahayuti alliance had a significant lead among all the major caste groups, which played a crucial role in its victory.
Caste wise Election results 2024 Vidhan Sabha
Note: The pre-poll study was conducted between 13th November and 17th November, covering 25 Assembly Constituencies with 4 localities in each, totaling 100 localities. A total of 3,479 samples were collected across the state for the study. The sample was then adjusted based on age, gender, caste, past Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha results, and geographical spread to ensure accuracy
The "Ladki Behan Yojana" had a significant impact on the Mahayuti alliance’s success in the recent Maharashtra elections. The scheme, promising financial support to women, particularly in rural areas, helped garner strong support from female voters. According to a pre-poll study by Dhruv Research, 6% more women voted for the Mahayuti alliance compared to male voters. This initiative helped mitigate rural distress, resonating with communities facing economic challenges. The scheme, alongside other welfare policies, played a crucial role in bolstering Mahayuti’s appeal, especially in key rural zones like Marathwada and Vidarbha, where it contributed to their strong performance.
Gender wise Elections results 2024 Vidhan Sabha
Note: The pre-poll study was conducted between 13th November and 17th November, covering 25 Assembly Constituencies with 4 localities in each, totaling 100 localities. A total of 3,479 samples were collected across the state for the study. The sample was then adjusted based on age, gender, caste, past Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha results, and geographical spread to ensure accuracy
The Mahayuti Alliance has delivered a stellar performance in the Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha elections, far surpassing its showing in the previous Lok Sabha elections. The Mahayuti claimed 234 seats in the Vidhan Sabha compared to 126 Vidhan Sabha leads in the Lok Sabha, cementing its overwhelming dominance. The BJP recorded a remarkable 89% win rate in the Vidhan Sabha, a significant leap from its 47% in the Lok Sabha. Similarly, SHS (ES) displayed strong results with a 70% win rate in the Vidhan Sabha, up from 44% in the Lok Sabha. Meanwhile, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) found itself thoroughly outmatched, winning only 50 seats in the Vidhan Sabha, a steep decline from its 153 in the Lok Sabha. This commanding victory leaves MVA with much to ponder ahead of the upcoming municipal elections. Whether the Mahayuti can sustain this wave of success in Delhi and Bihar remains an open question.
Head on Comparison of Mahayuti and MVA partners
*Numbers in Vidhan Sabha do not add up to total since there were seats where more than 1 party contested from MVA or Mahayuti
