Resurgent Congress's Historic Win in Telangana's 2023 Assembly Elections: A Deep Dive into Dynamics and Margins

A resurgent Indian National Congress (INC) made a historic victory by beating the incumbent Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) formerly Telangana Rashtra Samithi for the first time since the formation of the state in the recently concluded Telangana assembly elections. With 63.94% voter turnout, INC secured 64 seats garnering a substantial vote share of 39.4%. However it is essential to note that the margin between the BRS and the Congress in terms of vote share was a mere 2%. The average winning margin stood at 28.94%.

Party	Seat Count	Vote Share
BJP	8	13.9%
BRS	39	37.30%
INC	64	39.40%
Others	8	9.40%

Source of Table: ECI

The BJP clinched an impressive 7 seats in the North Zone region, marking a substantial leap from the absence of any secured seats in the region in 2018 assembly elections. Meanwhile, INC emerged as the dominant force in the East Zone, securing the highest number of seats, while the BRS claimed the majority in the Hyderabad zone. Notably, the Congress managed to secure only 3 seats in the competitive Hyderabad zone. The All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) maintained its consistent performance, securing 7 seats in both election years.

	2023 AE				2018 AE
Zone	BJP	BRS	INC	Others	BJP	INC	BRS	Others
East Zone	0	4	29	1	0	11	20	3
Hyderabad Zone	1	17	3	7	1	2	18	7
North Zone	7	9	16	0	0	3	28	1
South-West Zone	0	9	16	0	0	3	22	0

Source: ECI

In the triangular contests of the Telangana assembly elections, the BJP emerged as a formidable contender against both the ruling BRS and the INC. Revanth Reddy, the president of the Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee (TPCC) and the current Chief Minister, played a pivotal role in leading the Congress to victory. Revanth Reddy, won in Kodangal but faced defeat in Kamareddy against BJP candidate Katipally Venkata Ramana Reddy. Meanwhile, Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao secured victory from the Gajwel Assembly constituency in Siddipet district, defeating his nearest BJP rival but faced a setback in Kamareddy, losing to BJP's Katipally Venkata Ramana Reddy.

The BJP accomplished a notable feat by securing 6 seats in the rural region, a significant departure from the absence of seats in the 2018 assembly elections. Conversely, in urban areas, the BJP saw a modest increase, gaining only one seat. The BRS faced a setback, losing several seats in rural constituencies. This trend might be attributed to the Rythu Bandhu scheme, where the exclusion of landless and tenant farmers from its benefits could have influenced the electoral dynamics.INC having promised financial assistance to landless labourers, may have seen an upswing in their seats in these areas as a result of this commitment.

	2023 AE				2018 AE
Party	BJP	BRS	INC	Others	BJP	BRS	INC	Others
Rural	6	21	56	0	0	16	64	3
Urban	2	18	8	8	1	3	24	8

Source: ECI

BJP secured all of its seats exclusively in the non-tribal areas. In contrast, in the Scheduled Tribe (ST) dominated zones, the INC emerged triumphant, securing the highest number of seats.

	2023 AE				2018 AE
Seat Category	BJP	BRS	INC	Others	BJP	BRS	INC	Others
NonST	8	37	60	8	1	16	86	10
ST	0	2	4	0	0	3	2	1

Source: ECI

The INC emerged as a formidable force in the state, clinching a victory that distinguishes itself among all recent elections. Their success can be attributed to a strategic approach marked by aggressive campaigning and a spotlight on the alleged corruption within the BRS. The BRS faced formidable challenges stemming from corruption accusations and growing frustration among the youth due to job scarcity. Scandals such as paper leaks and irrigation irregularities further eroded public trust in the incumbent party.

The BJP effectively capitalised on the prevailing disappointment with BRS governance, carving out its presence in this election. The Congress, with its welfare schemes and six electoral guarantees, appears to have swayed votes in its favour.

As this political landscape takes shape, it sets the stage for potential implications in the upcoming general elections. The Congress's newfound strength and the BJP's ability to make significant inroads indicate a shifting political dynamic. Whether this trend will carry forward and impact the larger political arena remains a crucial question as the nation approaches the upcoming 2024 general elections.