The recently concluded Madhya Pradesh elections witnessed a robust average voter turnout of 77.45%, with male participation surpassing that of females in most constituencies. 34 constituencies recorded higher female voter turnout, challenging the conventional gender voting pattern.
| Gender | Voter Turnout% |
|---|---|
| Male | 78.60% |
| Female | 76.25% |
| Overall | 77.45% |
Source of Table: ECI
The BJP emerged triumphant with an impressive victory, securing 163 out of 230 seats. Notably, the BSP celebrated its inaugural success, claiming a single seat. The battle between the BJP and the INC was characterised by an 8% difference in vote share, the highest among BJP-led victories in other states.
| Party | Seat Count | Vote Share |
|---|---|---|
| BJP | 163 | 48.6% |
| INC | 66 | 40.4% |
| BSP | 1 | 3.4% |
| Others | 0 | 7.7% |
Source of Table: ECI
The state recorded a 75.45% voter turnout with female voter turnout surpassing the male voter turnout.
The BJP's average winning margin stood at 11.8%, narrowing in constituencies with voter turnouts exceeding 80%. The Congress managed victories in only 8 out of 42 swing constituencies, while the BJP dominated the remaining seats.
| Voter TurnOut Range | 10% or Less | 10%-20% | 20%-30% | 30%-40% | 40% or More |
| 50%-60% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 60%-70% | 11 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 70%-80% | 42 | 35 | 13 | 7 | 1 |
| 80%-90% | 60 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 90%+ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Source: ECI
Key personalities in the election included Kamal Nath, securing victory in Chhindwara, while 12 ministers from Shivraj Singh Chouhan's cabinet faced defeat. The Gwalior-Chambal region took centre stage, witnessing a significant surge for the BJP and a decline for the Congress compared to the 2018 elections. The BJP experienced its highest vote share gain in 2023 compared to 2018 in the Shahdol Zone, registering a notable increase of 10.2%, while the INC saw a 3.3% gain in the Sagar Zone. Geographically, the BJP excelled in rural areas, securing 143 seats, while the Congress faced a considerable decline compared to the 2018 results. In the urban landscape, the BJP clinched 80% of the seats, indicating a strong performance with a gain of 10 seats from the previous elections.
| 2023 AE | 2018 AE | |||||
| Party | BJP | INC | Others | BJP | INC | Others |
| Rural | 143 | 61 | 1 | 99 | 99 | 7 |
| Urban | 20 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 15 | 0 |
Source: ECI
The female-centric Ladli Behna scheme played a pivotal role in BJP's success in regions with higher female voter turnout. The BJP's victory in SC-dominated seats increased to 26, while Congress secured only 9. In tribal-dominated areas, the BJP claimed victory in approximately 50% of the seats.
| 2023 AE | 2018 AE | |||||
| Seat Category | BJP | INC | Others | BJP | INC | Others |
| GEN | 113 | 35 | 0 | 75 | 67 | 6 |
| SC | 26 | 9 | 0 | 18 | 17 | 0 |
| ST | 24 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 30 | 1 |
Source: ECI
Prime Minister Modi's leadership, BJP's commitment to the underprivileged and female centric schemes were significant factors influencing voters. The "Modi ki Guarantee'' campaign strategy and the BJP's focus on welfare initiatives, especially Ladli Behna Yojana , proved effective. The Congress's soft Hindutva and the promises failed to translate into electoral success. With new faces like Mohan Yadav the current Chief Minister and newly appointed deputy CMs Rajendra Shukla and Jagdish Devda, in the state, BJP is likely to beat any anti-incumbency in the upcoming Lok sabha elections. Whereas regional parties and new entrants like AAP could not leave a mark, it will be interesting to see if INDIA alliance will be able to consolidate votes in its favour in the upcoming general elections.
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