Rajasthan has a trend of historically alternating between BJP and INC every five years. Caste has played a major role in elections in India. The distribution of tickets may be one of the factors leading to a swing in the elections. As the upcoming election results approach with Rajasthan registering a 75.45% voter turnout we aim to decipher the impact category and caste-wise ticket distribution can have on the election outcome.
The gender distribution in the overall population of the region indicates a near balance, with a slightly higher proportion of males compared to females.
| Gender | Population | Population(%) |
|---|---|---|
| Male | 35,554,169 | 51.5% |
| Female | 32,994,268 | 48.1% |
Source of Table: 2011 Census
In Rajasthan, OBC constitutes the majority of the population. Notably, the Jat community,, stands as the most substantial caste group in the state, constituting 14% of the total population followed by Rajputs. The electoral landscape is significantly shaped by the influence of the Jats, particularly given their prominence in 85 constituencies. Additionally, the Gujjar community wields considerable sway, impacting around 30 seats and accounting for 9% of the total population.
| Category | Population |
|---|---|
| OBC | 44% |
| GEN | 25% |
| SC | 17.8% |
| ST | 13.5% |
Source
Despite the acknowledged significance of gender diversity in political representation, a concerning trend persists across major parties, including the BJP and INC, where the proportion of women candidates lags significantly behind their male counterparts. The BJP has only 9.5% of its candidates as women, while the Congress marginally fares better at 14.5%.
| Party | Male | Female | Total |
| BJP | 181 | 19 | 200 |
| INC | 170 | 29 | 199 |
| BSP | 163 | 19 | 182 |
| AAP | 82 | 19 | 101 |
| RLP | 73 | 5 | 78 |
| AIMIM | 12 | 0 | 12 |
Source : ECI
Majority of the candidates contesting are above 40 years of age with the average age being 55 for major parties. Those aged below 40 account for less than 25% of the total candidate pool.
| Party | 24-30 | 30-40 | 40-50 | 50-60 | 60+ | Average Age |
| BJP | 1 | 12 | 44 | 74 | 69 | 55.2 |
| INC | 3 | 28 | 41 | 54 | 73 | 54.6 |
| BSP | 9 | 41 | 58 | 49 | 25 | 46.7 |
| AAP | 2 | 27 | 32 | 19 | 7 | 44.6 |
| RLP | 2 | 29 | 21 | 17 | 9 | 45.4 |
| AIMIM | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 41.8 |
Source : ECI
The youngest candidate is 25 years of age whereas the oldest is 84 years out of all the candidates contesting with both belonging from Congress party. Over 71% of the candidates hold graduate or postgraduate degrees. BJP has a higher number of candidates with graduate degrees whereas Congress has a higher number of candidates with post graduation or higher degrees.
| Education Level | BJP | INC |
| Post Graduation or Higher | 50 | 67 |
| Graduate | 92 | 75 |
| 12th Pass | 19 | 30 |
| 10th Pass | 21 | 14 |
| 8th Pass or Less | 18 | 13 |
Source : ECI
88% of the candidates declared by BJP are crorepatis whereas 83% of the candidates declared by Congress are crorepatis. The income of the candidates range from 1 crore to more than 170 crores.
| Party | Number of Candidates with Income> 1 crore | Number of Candidates with Income< 1 crore |
| BJP | 176 | 24 |
| INC | 167 | 32 |
| AAP | 29 | 57 |
| RLP | 36 | 42 |
| BSP | 36 | 149 |
Source: ADR Report
Across the past three elections, the BJP has seen the re-election of 49 MLAs, surpassing the INC's count of 44 MLAs who were elected twice. Furthermore, the BJP demonstrates a lead in the number of MLAs elected thrice, with 17 instances, while the Congress lags behind with only 5 MLAs securing three consecutive terms. All the MLAs that secured seats three times have been given tickets by BJP and INC for the fourth consecutive term
In the 2018 assembly elections, the OBC community emerged with the highest representation among elected representatives, constituting 34.5% of the total elected MLAs. Jats won the maximum number of seats totaling 30 in the elections in 2018 with INC winning 18 seats whereas BJP won only 12.
In the upcoming elections, BJP has given balanced representation to general and OBC constituting 31% and 36% respectively of the overall candidates fielded by BJP. Congress on the other hand has tilted towards a higher representation for OBC candidates at 37% and has kept it balanced across other categories. BSP has given the highest number of representatives to SC candidates with nearly half of their candidates belonging to the SC community.
BJP has given higher representation to the Rajput Community with 13.5% candidates whereas Congress has given the highest representation to Brahmins at 8% followed by Rajput and Muslim candidates in the general category.
Among the OBC category, all three parties have given the highest representation to the Jat Community followed by Gujjar.
The Meena caste has been given the highest representation by both the BJP and Congress among the Scheduled Tribes followed by Bhil. All three parties have given the highest representation to Meghwal among Scheduled Castes.
In the preceding two assembly elections, both the BJP and INC exhibited a similar distribution of tickets across various categories. However, a shift is observed in the upcoming 2023 elections, particularly in the significant reduction of tickets allocated to General candidates. In contrast to the previous allocation of 136 tickets given by INC, only 116 have been allocated this year. Conversely, the distribution of tickets for SC and ST candidates has remained relatively consistent across the three elections for both parties.
| 2013 | 2018 | 2023 | ||||
| Category | BJP | INC | BJP | INC | BJP | INC |
| GEN+OBC | 138 | 136 | 138 | 132 | 136 | 116 |
| SC | 34 | 35 | 34 | 35 | 35 | 34 |
| ST | 28 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 34 |
Source: ECI
The significance of caste dynamics continues to be a crucial factor for the electorate. Although current exit polls suggest a lead for the BJP, the final results will reveal whether the distribution of tickets by various parties had a substantial impact on the outcome. Checkout our analysis on Strategies and Rallies in Rajasthan Assembly Election 2023.
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